Showing posts with label Share Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Share Market. Show all posts

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Some interesting thing to ponder on

 

 

 

17 May 2006 index was 12,217, 14 Jun 2006 index was 8,929

 

I found this some where in one of the discussion threads in traderji .com. Thing is that too many people cannot be doing the right thing, that takes the fun of being right at the right time. So discussion forums when filled with tips and advices, it becomes difficult to gleam out any significant content out from any of those.

 

Like the commodities market , which plays seasonal did take a reverse turn this time, which goes on to show what common people entering the market and retail investors becoming experts can do . There is a simple law of physics, that is the pyramidal shape.

Everything follows the pyramid way, whether it is the spiritual path,  or the monetary world or the structure of a company or the foundation of a good building.

The stability comes only from the pyramidal shape , with the low lying bricks to carry the brunt of the pressure always, and the top ones getting the sun .

 

During the exam period the paper stocks are supposed to go up  , but if you were to read this years trends you will find out to be the opposite ( not exactly opposite,  I am not the director of Sansani , churning out terrible stories). All I am saying is that too many people read into these kind of seasonal playing and that creates the kind of effect that makes the market statistics go crazy

 

 

Some data regarding some of the mutual funds in India

Though most of the houses are running low as we speak ( it is Oct 2008 ) one of the worst crises since  the 1930s depression.

 

Well , Karan Thapar was hosting one interview of Montek Singh Ahluwalia ,and he rather brought out the point candidly that the time coincides with Christian killings in Orissa, Tata suffering at the hands of land politics, and liquidity crunch in the ongoing market.

 

Still, I believe that there is a lighter side to it all, and that is that the fundamentals itself will not break and investors who are planning only for a long term plan can be in the win win position.

Though there is no proof of the data below, but I got hold of it from Money control.com

 

 

Fund

SIP returns over 8 years

Normal returns over 8 years

Franklin India Bluechip

27.76%

25.28%

Pru ICICI Growth

23.61%

19.73%

HDFC Equity

31.53%

29.38%

Reliance Growth

40.71%

35.90%

 

 

I believe that what they are trying so sell here is that SIP is the best way to average out the market ups and downs which many experts believe is the best way to play the market.

One thing definitely goes always is the fact that if money making was an easy game there is no need for running any business, starting any company and think about development,

When half the world sits and does research about how the companies are moving and a small bunch tries it out the hard way to make money the good old way, by producing something and by selling something, there is bound to be an economic catastrophe and that is exactly what happened this time

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Somethng is driving Nasdaq crazy today

Well,

Nasdaq is doing good in the beginning hours of the day today, Relaxation in trading regulations in Australia and also the talks of removal of Euro has been doing the rounds for quite some time now.

I believe the recession has its good and bad sides together, the bad being more, but since the business will go on and basic fundamentals of all stocks will keep trading without making millionaires by the hour, which was happening with our country for almost a decade now,

 

Some sad story out there , Karthik Raja Ram an Indian techie in US committed suicide after killing his mother in law , wife and children . He was suffering from financial pressure for a long time and finally succumbed to it. I understand the problems first generation Indians face out there. It is a pain of the decision and  money being the only soothing tonic in foreign land, but somehow  if that monetary tick dies, your world comes crumbling down.

Still, the thought , why he did not return to his country back is one thing that is looming large in my mind. I have no clue ( may be loans all around the place ) ,

 

 

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Sorry for the last post on Participatory notes

The format is all a mess. I will try to improve on it.

 

I just went down to the TB hospital in search of the sweepers colony there. The guys there charge exorbitantly for cleaning one drain ( though the prices of manual labor in India for these kind of work is very low , these guys are loaded in their demands as I looked pretty novice here in Kolkata )

 

Still, Kolkata is far better in many things. The other day the Rickshawallah in Old Digha took us for  ride as he charged 50 bucks for Old Digha to New Digha trip. Moreover when I wanted to give him 40 he made faces which resembled some one who just suffered a stock market crash.

 

 

The sweepers colony is inside the premises of the TB Hospital here in Patipukur. Mostly the people here know about anything and everything that goes in and around this place, but finding something online is becoming costlier and more difficult day by day ,

Soon people will have to resort to using their own tools and stopping looking for outside help for plumbing, wood work and day to day electric work.

I think being a Computer Engineer you just get yourself a tag of being an engineer and nothing more than that. We  in future will have to become able electricians if things are to be kept in control.

 

 

Participatory Notes

It is Kolkata time now and I am back to understanding market terms ( as well as other things , including my work , at times )

 

Behind all the hue and cry about Participatory Notes

 

George Mathew

The Indian Express

Published on October 18, 2007

 

 

In the backdrop of a 1,700 point intra-day fall in the Sensex, George Mathew explains the hullabaloo behind participatory notes (PNs or P-Notes)

 

What are PNs?

 

Participatory Notes — classified under offshore derivative instruments — are issued by Sebi-registered foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to their overseas investors, who wish to invest in the Indian stock markets without registering themselves with Sebi. Under this system, FIIs route their purchases of shares through brokers and then issue PNs to their overseas clients which indicate the underlying stocks. Foreign clients get dividends or capital gains collected from the underlying securities.

 

Why do foreign investors come through this route?

 

Registered FIIs which handle PNs on behalf of their foreign clients do not disclose their client details to Sebi, unless asked specifically by the regulator. Foreign investors who invest through PNs can remain anonymous, they don’t need to register with Sebi. Foreign hedge funds — infamous and feared for their quick entry and exits — normally use PNs to invest in India .

 

What’s wrong with that?

 

The biggest problem is their opacity in an era of transparency. Indian regulators don’t have any idea about the source of funds and the identity of foreign investors putting money in PNs. On the other hand, Indian investors have to disclose the full details about their funds and identity while putting funds in the market. So there’s no level playing field. There’s also a fear that PNs bring in hot money which comes into the country suddenly and exits at the same speed.

 

Finally, the government is worried about whether the PN route is being used to launder money. Earlier, a Sebi investigation exposed how Indian money was routed from India to Mauritius , London , British Virgin Islands and the US and re-entered India as foreign money through the PN route.

 

How much foreign money has come through PNs?

 

According to Sebi, the notional value of PNs outstanding, which was at Rs 31,875 crore (20 per cent of assets under custody) in March 2004 has now grown to Rs 353,484 crore —which is 51.6 per cent of assets under FII custody — by August 2007. This means most foreign investment in stocks is through PNs.

 

Why has Sebi proposed curbs on PNs now?

 

Sebi wants to encourage foreign investors to register directly with the regulator and bring more transparency on the FII investment front. Another plan of the government is to moderate the copious inflow of foreign funds to the stock market and reduce the upward pressure on the rupee.

 

 

 From E-Group, Banking-News

 

 

What are ‘Participatory notes’?

 

D Sampathkumar, The Business Line

Published on October 18, 2007

 

 

‘Participatory notes’ are instruments that derive their value from an underlying financial instrument such as an equity share and, hence, the word, ‘derivative instruments’.

 

When the Indian capital market regulator permitted, back in 1992, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to register and trade in Indian securities, every one assumed that they would make proprietary investments out of their own capital.

 

3rd-party investments

 

There was no question of their trading on anyone else’s behalf. But as it turned out, FIIs were merely acting as a conduit for third-party investments.

 

But some of these third-party investors had their own preferences in the matter of what Indian stocks that they would like to own with its own risk and reward characteristics. In order to ring fence, each such pool of investments they created accounts or ‘sub-accounts’ in FII parlance.

 

Sub-account holders

 

But even sub-account holders, it turned out, were not investing their own money but were in fact raising money from a multitude of high net worth individuals.

 

They were issued pieces of paper that derived its value from underlying equity instruments of Indian corporates.

 

The participatory notes were now well truly launched. International investments got a little more complicated with sub-account investment institutions raising loan funds as securitised paper, with a pool of underlying equity shares of Indian companies.

 

All this leveraged money got further leveraged with the investments going into not just equity shares but derivative instruments (futures and options) of shares of Indian corporates.

 

Thus one could have a sub account holder of a registered FII investing a combination of subscriptions by a group of investors topped up with funds borrowed by floating yet another piece of tradable instrument using a pool of participatory notes as collateral.

 

But the tale of leveraged investments became a little more complex with a $100 of such funds getting invested, for example, not in Reliance shares but into futures contract on Reliance shares.

 

Futures contract

 

Now, in a futures contract, one did not have to invest the full value of the contract. It is enough if put up a small margin and topped it up each depending on how the share price moved.

 

The potential of $100 got further magnified.

 

It is easy to see the super structure of heavily leveraged investments flowing into the Indian stock market. That is without even thinking of whatever private financial arrangements that each one of investors in the original pool of investments that gave rise to the participatory notes.

 

Global liquidity

 

All of this became possible when there was a global liquidity thanks to the economic policies of the West and more particularly the US .

 

A financial distress for one lender who participated in leveraged transaction of investments of a sub-account holder of an FII who had invested in the Indian stock market can cause him to call back his loan.

 

This could lead to the sub-account holder closing out his futures position in the underlying share which caused the latter’s future price to fall.

 

Share prices

 

Since future prices are in turn linked to the spot prices of the same share, there is a price correction in the spot price as well.

 

The fall in share price erodes not just the overseas investor’s wealth but that of domestic investors as well.

 

The depreciation of the rupee’s value against other currencies or wiping out huge chunk of the RBI’s currency reserves when the liquidated investments goes out of the country, are the other unintended consequences of the FII play on the Indian stock market