Saturday, October 25, 2008

Something interesting about the stock market crash of the 1929 s

I found this today while reading through some of the previous stock market crashes of the yesteryears


By the end of the week of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40 percent from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months but it would be a false recovery that led unsuspecting investors into the worst economic crisis of modern times. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would lose 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932.



Taken from Wiki pedia.


This is exactly what  I am fearing , I am worried that the following will happen in India too. Though Nasdaq is behaving rather strongly in the last week and things are pretty much towards an upturn for Nasdaq . The same cannot be predicted for the rest of the world markets. None of the senior analysts are pointing out anything in particular.


People like Udayan Mukherjee are moreover, seen asking , the Gujrals, and Shahs, the imminent questions.

I am of the thought that the worse is yet to come since the markets are just starting to react to the bad news in India,

Layoffs , cost cutting and other forms of deleveraging measures will soon come to play and there will be a reduction in Rupee movement in the next quarter. I am worried about the January end, stock situation, Since there will be some rallying definitely in November, but December end onwards there will be the start of the doomsday that everybody is afraid of.

I know as a country , we have far more regularizations in the market and the FIIs are just 30% of the stock market and they are not going to completeyly vanish out of the market . But there are high chances that there export based economy will suffer some irrecoverable marks in the next two months.


 If my expectations are correct, April end will be the lowest the stock markets in India . For the others, who believe in short selling I do see some amount of good trading holding on.

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